Technical Analysis Archive
Point and Figure charts are generated from price volatility, unlike a vertical (bar) chart, which is plotted as a function of time. This is particularly valuable to Wyckoffians who are always on the search for a Cause being built. Causes lead to Effects; Accumulation results in Markup and Distribution turns into Markdown. Point and Figure analysis provides a method for estimating the potential extent of that Markup or Markdown. We have spent considerable time on methods and procedures for PnF analysis, and will continue our skill building using these powerful charts.
Here is a current and fascinating Point and Figure case study.
The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) is at an interesting juncture. Using a one box PnF chart (daily data) and ATR 20 scaling, let’s see how much can be learned about the present position of NDX. Accumulation evolves into a markup during the first part of 2016. A horizontal count is taken at 4,181.58 and projects to 5,039.34 / 5,325.26. This is a move of intermediate magnitude (potentially). And this is the first segment of an Accumulation that could include a larger PnF count. We can identify the stride of this advance with trend channel construction (anchor points are circled). In late 2016 a Reaccumulation forms which provides another PnF count (in red). This count approximately matches the larger base PnF objective, giving us added confirmation of the price target.
Notice what happens next. On the run from the bottom of the trend channel to the top, an acceleration of NDX throws over the upper trendline. This Climactic action occurs at the upper bounds of two PnF counts and the Overbought line of the trend channel. We expect this activity to stop the advance and result in a range bound market. This is a classic culmination of technical events. Confirmation of the conclusion of this Buying Climax surge would be a quick return under the Overbought line and a bout of price weakness (which would be labelled an Automatic Reaction).
Does this mean Distribution is forming? There are reasons to expect the upward trend to continue, after a pause. On the NDX chart only the first segment of the Accumulation has been counted (try counting the entire Accumulation). Also, the trend channel is still in force and it is expected that a return to the Demand Line (either suddenly or by drifting sideways) will result in an attempt to resume the rally. We will watch the progression of NDX closely for either the completion of another Reaccumulation or signs of Distribution.
All the Best,
Review the PnF of the NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ) published a year ago by clicking here.
Thank you for checking in with comments and questions. It is clear that you are practising and developing your PnF skill sets. My hope is that these case studies will answer many of your questions and provide additional tips and tricks for your Wyckoff toolbox.
Tues 4th October 2016
The next meeting of the Australian Professional Technical Analysts (APTA) Incorporated will be held at the City Tattersalls Club, 194 – 204 Pitt St, Sydney, at 6pm on Tuesday 4th October 2016.
* Please note that APTA and MTA members receive 3 Continuing Education (CE) Credits for the CMT and AMT qualifications for attending the meeting.
From the Work of Ivan Krastins
Gary will examine valid price Spike Highs and Spike Lows and the following price movement into pivot point turns. The text book “ price event” observations, outside periods and inside periods can provide a set a usable statistics with a tradeable outcome in all time frames.
Member of The Australian Technical Analysts association. (13 years) and is the current President of the Sydney chapter.
Member of the, Australian Professional Technical Analysts Association. (APTA)
PS 146 Compliance with ADA 1 & 2 in securities and derivatives.
Dip TA in 2004 / CFTe
Technical Analyst and Stock Broker with Alpine Asset Management.
Private client advisor with Macquarie Bank Sydney.
Senior client advisor with RBS Morgan’s.
Senior Client advisor with Investor First, transitioned to Wilson HTM Sydney
Technical Analyst with FP Markets.
Current student of Ivan Krastins.
A contributor to the Marcus Today stock Market letter.
June 2006 – June 2008 Daily Technical section.
(2008, Marcus won stock picker of the year.)
Presented for the Trading and Investing Expo in Sydney Brisbane and Melbourne.
Contributor to “Your trading Edge” publication and Stock and Commodities magazine.
Regular guest on Sky business “your money your call”
Regular guest on sky business “Lunch money”
Sky Business “ Monday Technical analysis” contributor.
Weekly Contributor to Thomson Reuters Technical Analysis. ( NAB Trade ).
APTA and MTA Members $FREE
All non-members must register and pay prior to the event. Late registration will not be accepted.
Members and non-members WILL NOT be admitted without prior registration and payment.
Payment WILL NOT be accepted at the event.
APTA and MTA members are not required to register.
Following a collaborative agreement between the Australian Professional Technical Analysts (APTA) Inc and the Market Technicians Association (MTA), members of the MTA receive honorary APTA membership and are entitled to attend all APTA meetings. The APTA Management Committee extend a warm welcome to our MTA colleagues.
APTA Meeting FAQs:
How can I attend APTA meetings?
APTA and MTA members may attend normal meetings at no charge. APTA and MTA members may attend the Annual APTA Luncheon and Christmas Party at a discounted price.
Non APTA and MTA members may also attend normal APTA meetings but must register and pay $30 on-line prior to the event. Registration for the Annual APTA Annual Luncheon is more expensive and will be announced in a timely manner by the Committee.
Can I pay APTA at the door to attend a normal meeting?
No. Unfortunately, all guests must register and pay online at least 2 hours prior to the meeting. Payments can not taken at the meeting and any non member who has failed to register and pay will not gain admittance.
Can I pay APTA at the door to attend the Annual APTA Luncheon?
No. Unfortunately, ALL attendees (including APTA and MTA members) must register and pay online at least 2 days prior to the luncheon. Payments can not taken at the luncheon and any person who has failed to register and pay will not gain admittance.
How can I get the details of the event ?
Details are available at the APTA website at www.apta.org.au .
How can I be notified of upcoming meetings ?
Join the APTA Newsletter mailing list at www.apta.org.au .
Could I invite a friend / colleague to come along to an APTA meeting ?
Of course. If you have any friend / colleague that may be interested in attending as well, feel free to invite them, but please remember that they must register and pay prior to the event.
Comments or questions are welcome.
Comments or questions are welcome.
Technically Speaking magazine is a monthly periodical distributed to the MTA membership in digital format.
Technically Speaking highlights a variety of topics in market analysis, asset management, and trading.
The magazine features articles, techniques and research written by members of the MTA and wider financial community, book reviews, and interviews with recognized industry professionals.
What lies ahead in September for US Equities? Bruno Estier, Independent Market Strategist
You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#193388
0:00sep tember is wearing me as every September we know that sometimes if we
0:05look for example in 2014 volatility tend to write the morning brunei so we’re in
0:14September now so do you think the US equity market will continue to go higher
0:20well good morning Sally Starr yes we do have good news
0:23let’s see this morning mid cap which is a lot better for the market we see how
0:29your highs and higher lows here on the smoke up and under the cap as well and
0:33the relative strength has been rising during the old summer and it’s now a
0:38little bit poisoning but the momentum is still higher at first sight it looks
0:42good but what’s worrying you
0:44well September is wearing me as a every September we know that sometimes if we
0:50look for example in 2014 volatility tend to rise in September sometimes even
0:56start with audio in August as August has been very quite so far there is some
1:03chance that the ability would be arising if we look at that here we are below the
1:07thirteen percent levels which is a bit complacent that means nobody worrying
1:11about anything and on the other hand if we look in detail what happened in the
1:17last 10 days we had a first initial rise from eleven to fifteen percent and then
1:22the putback but this pullback with current rising momentum could be a
1:27higher lows and that could announce some more trouble later on okay what does
1:33that mean for their SMP 500 well we hope that that means that it would break out
1:38of these very narrowing bollinger bands which has been like a lasting now for
1:45almost all of july and august we see a very narrow training range again just
1:51before labor day we had a kind of a force break up on the downside that’s
1:56relatively corresponding to the seasonal that just before Labor Day doesn’t break
2:01down it’s more after late and we hadn’t even a rebound to what the top of the
2:06training range so here really what we need to to think and and watch is two
2:12two simple levels the first one would be a failure in the coming days to break
2:17above the resistance level which is a 21 92 93 and of course if there is a such a
2:25failure would be watching at the level of 2160 the support of course as this
2:31confirmation that something is going on there are other markets such as the
2:36European equities markets which have been doing quite well it’s been quite
2:39bullish hasn’t it
2:41well yes and he did give a relatively nice bullish signals because it’s
2:46breaking a long-term downtrend line that we see here over more than one year
2:52around the level of thirty 30 and now it’s rising up it comes at the same time
3:00as a relative strength versus the SNP is rising while it was declining so far so
3:05in fact basically if it was declining so far that means that Europe was lagging
3:10the SNP so that could just be a kind of ketchup situation and not lasting very
3:17long and he say the japanese market performing well
3:21japanese is a has been performing as expected in the sense that when it came
3:26close to 100 then there was a worried that too maybe it was too expensive yen
3:34and then the quickly corrected down 296 and at the same time we see that nuclear
3:40rebounded from 17,000 6402 to the 17,000 levels now yesterday was kind of
3:47interesting because it make a new high like a breakout above the previous
3:52resistance 6900 and at the same time the energy balance so it doesn’t go together
3:5911 of coffee is wrong so if there is a rebound because it was kind of a good
4:05move on the inside then probably the yen could be better patient we see here the
4:10oscillator the momentum is also overboard so it’s a situation where a
4:15reversal on this breakup could be with more dramatic the brunei you being a bit
4:22too cautious have how emerging markets going well if
4:26way that’s a good question you know because everything is doing well if we
4:31take some more distance and we go to a weekly chart
4:34what do we see we see indeed since during a very nice rise but this right
4:40now is approaching kosher levels first of all it’s the previous highs of the
4:46area of sep tember year ago
4:49secondly it is also a technical levels of close to this the top of this cloud
4:55and we know they’re usually that could be some resistance of some stalling that
5:00means the market could go from instead of continuing I could go sideways and
5:05put back that’s it for china so that’s why I’m worried and india was your
5:12favorite market is that still doing well
5:14india has been already making a small pose like we mentioned that two weeks
5:20ago and it’s now making a new high as if it wants to continue to go a lot more
5:26higher it is true that it outperformed the S&P that’s the black line which is
5:31rising vs emerging-market here it’s not so clear because it’s flat for now a few
5:37months so that means that’s not the leader anymore it’s just performing as
5:41well as over markets so here again we need to be careful about what would
5:49happen if we go back to below this key resistance level that we have identified
5:54already or four weeks ago and that would come together with some bearish
6:00divergence so that means what could come after is more of a stronger correction
6:06that what I have been so far and during the summer you like Brazil but has it
6:11been overbought now brazen used 22 always like when somebody games happen
6:17it’s usually uh we’re doing any country equity marketing of that country is
6:22doing well and we see that it has been rising on the relative strength is in
6:26peak away nicely vs said the imaging market it’s now also stalling because
6:32it’s also more linked not anymore with a leaping games that more with oil and
6:38we are close to some key resistance that we had not seen since april $DAY of
6:45$MONTH 2015 so with with the momentum starting a little bit too we need to be
6:51careful that it doesn’t go back below 44 and what could be a trigger for bad news
6:56the trigger for venues will be basically in all these market that what’s it is
7:03expected about growth is not realized so how do we measure grove indirectly in
7:09the markets usually when there is more buff expected interest rates are
7:14supposed to rise and that’s why we try to identify already since mid-july
7:19because we noticed these triangles in the interest rates of the 10-year US but
7:24it hasn’t broken up yet
7:27it’s taking its time again it’s stored at the 163 and it’s back down to the
7:33support level of the triangle so much lower yield below 150 would be a kind of
7:39a warning because we notice that when it went down in June the SNP also had a
7:45kind of a sharp correction and here it has been so quiet that it could happen
7:50the same thing and what should the second market be watching out for the
7:55second market is also linked to interest rate we mention oil if there is some
8:02expectation about inflation that means all price good should also go up as well
8:08as the interest rates and here we also have a very nice long term pattern which
8:13core for higher old price but there as well it’s taking its time it still below
8:2051 and the related transversal the SNP is also still below its key resistances
8:27so it’s not yet a good contributor to our bullish SNP so it’s still in the
8:34well Bruno as always such a pleasure to have you here and we look forward to any
8:38come in next time you’re welcome
8:40that’s all for myself and Brunei if you like this segment please give it a like
8:44and comment on our website dukascopy . TV
At the beginning of 2000, I unsuccessfully submitted a bearish stock market article, A Turn of the Tide, to a well-known US financial publisher. At the time, in the middle of a market mania, my contrarian warning was unwelcome. Ironically, it was later carried by a Polish financial magazine—not exactly the wide distribution channel I was hoping for! This incident is being brought up now because the S&P Composite,when adjusted for inflation, has made no real progress in the intervening 16-years. That said, it now looks as though bullish forces are conspiring to take prices through the 16 year inflation adjusted glass ceiling to significantly higher levels. Guiding the way higher is our composite stock market indicator the stock “Speedometer”. Before we review that evidence, it makes sense to back up a little in order to evaluate things from a longer-term perspective.
Valuation- a Wall of Worry
Chart 1 compares the inflation adjusted S&P Composite to the renowned Shiller P/E, the so-called CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio).
Chart 1 Inflation Adjusted Stocks versus the Shiller P/E
(Source: Martin Pring’s August Intermarket Review)
High valuations are a problem but only when the trend is negative
At Pring Turner we think of the Shiller P/E as not only a valuation but also a sentiment indicator. High readings indicate confidence, as investors are willing to pay a very high price per each dollar of earnings. Compare that to depressed levels at secular lows, when there is so much fear and pessimism that those same investors demand a much lower price per dollar of earnings (lower P/E) for the huge risks they perceive.
Right now, this indicator is at a high level when compared to historical readings. It’s in what we call the equity “death zone”, as flagged by the pink shaded areas. There is no doubt that the level of this indicator concerns us, but that doesn’t mean a stock price collapse is imminent. In fact, stocks can continue to rise despite the lofty valuations. For example, what was historically extended in 1928 and 1995 became even more stretched by the time the market peaked in 1929 and 2000. The higher you climb on Mount Everest the more dangerous it becomes, but that does not stop determined climbers from taking the risk and pushing through the “death zone” on their way to the summit. In markets, crowd psychology can cause prices to overshoot as market participants become overly confident and expect higher and higher prices. There is no question that the equity prices, by historical measures of very long-term momentum and many valuation yardsticks, are overextended. It is and should be a wall of worry against higher prices. Nevertheless, the vast majority of primary trend indicators (the “tape”) are acting positively.
The Market and the Economy
Over the last century, 3 out of every 4 bear markets occurred during economic recessions. Following business cycle indicators helps us navigate the major ups and downs of the markets. As the economy changes, we make important investment adjustments to better prepare for the road ahead. Bull moves in stocks typically emerge as investors finish discounting recessionary conditions or economic slowdowns. Prices rally as the market senses that a phase of renewed growth is in the air. In this respect, Chart 2 compares the S&P Composite to our Growth Indicator, a composite series constructed from the momentum of several leading economic indicators. The vertical lines flag instances when it reverses to the upside from a position at or below the -12.5% level. Red highlights indicate recessions, the ending of which have been consistently signaled with a bottoming in the Growth Indicator. The signals not connected with recessions mostly developed as the economy was emerging from a growth slowdown, such as in 1962, 1966 and 1984. Each was followed by a very robust equity rally, except for in late 2001. The 2001 reversal correctly forecasted the recovery, but is one of very few instances where the market and the economy were totally decoupled.
Chart 2 S&P Composite versus the Growth Indicator
(Source: Martin Pring’s August Intermarket Review)
When the growth Indicator bottoms expect the economy to improve and for stocks to move higher
The recent rally in the Growth series tells us that business activity will likely do its part, so let’s now turn to some market indicators to see whether they are also ready to oblige.
Long-term Stock Market Indicators
Chart 3 features our Financial Velocity indicator, or rather its 6-month moving average. This series combines the rate-of-change of bonds, stocks and commodities into one series. It triggers buy signals by reversing to the upside from a position at or, more commonly, below the equilibrium level. Examples have been flagged by the vertical lines. Most have been followed by important bull moves in inflation adjusted stocks, but one or two, like 1940 and 1978 have not. These reversals signal that sufficient liquidity is being pumped into the system to power the economy, and therefore the stock market, higher. Note that virtually every recession (red highlights) is associated with a turnaround in the indicator. This velocity series has recently reversed for the 22nd time since 1921. This reversal strongly suggests that a new up leg in the bull market is underway.
Chart 3 Inflation Adjusted Equities versus The Financial Velocity Indicator
(Source: Martin Pring’s August Intermarket Review)
When velocity bottoms, stocks usually begin a bull market of some kind
Bond Market Confidence
A strong rally in stocks is often associated with an improvement in bond market confidence. One way that this is telegraphed is from reversals in momentum calculated by the ratio between low quality and high quality bonds (government yields/ corporate Baa yields), a so called “credit spread”. This relationship is shown in long-term momentum format in Chart 4. A rising indicator reflects improving confidence amongst bond investors, as they favor higher yielding but more risky Baa corporate bonds over government bonds. The vertical lines tell us that a bottoming in momentum at or below the green “confidence” line indicates that a more positive trend sentiment has begun. In all, there have been eight signals since 1949. In each situation, equities rallied with only the duration and magnitude open to question.
Chart 4 S&P Composite versus Credit Spread Momentum
(Source: Martin Pring’s August Intermarket Review)
Stocks are likely to rise when the momentum of this credit spread bottoms from a low level
Chart 5 expresses market breadth in the form of the momentum of stocks registering net new 52-week highs on the NYSE. The vertical green lines flag when this price oscillator, following a corrective period (blue arrows), moves above the overstretched green horizontal line. This action suggests the market is severely overbought; however, unlike most overstretched conditions, this is positive because it usually reflects a bull move in its initial stages. The chart shows that each of these six instances has been followed by a worthwhile advance since the 1970’s.
Chart 5 NYSE Composite versus a Net New High Oscillator
(Source: Martin Pring’s August Intermarket Review)
A sharp oscillator correction followed by an overbought reading means higher prices are to come
The sixth and final bullish indicator is our “Stock Speedometer”. The Stock Speedometer is a combination of a wide range of market indicators. Historically higher readings have led to better returns for the average stock; conversely, lower readings have led to poor results. The speedometer is designed to identify the primary environment of the stock market. Similar to your car speedometer, it signals how fast or slow we, as sub advisors, drive our portfolios. As the Speedometer changes, important portfolio adjustments are made in order to better navigate the financial road conditions ahead.
The Stock Speedometer has two crucial areas: a “Safety Zone” and a “Danger Zone”. Since 2000, the NYSE Composite returned +12% per year on average with the speedometer in the positive or Safety Zone. In comparison, it declined -21% per year on average when the speedometer was in the Danger Zone. The latest reading is 90%, which is firmly in bullish territory, thereby indicating an above average exposure to equities.
Chart 6 Pring Turner Stock Speedometer
The current high reading means it is safe to drive portfolios at a faster speed
There is no doubt that the high reading in the Shiller P/E is a cause for concern, a definite wall of worry if you will. Still, history demonstrates that markets can, and often do, overshoot. This does not mean that breaking through the glass ceiling denotes that the sky is the limit. Rather, it tells us to stay the course as long as our Speedometer and other indicators continue to signal safe driving conditions for portfolios. We welcome questions or comments about any of the 6 indicators or inquiries about our sub-advisory services.
Thank you for reading.
Click the following link to download the PDF Glass Ceiling 6 Reasons to Be Bullish
DISCLOSURES:Pring Turner Capital Group (“Advisor”) is a financial advisor based in Walnut Creek, CA. The Advisor invests on behalf of individuals, organizations, and other financial advisors that appreciate a conservative and active investment style that aims to deliver consistent results without taking undue risk. The key objective of the Advisor’s investment philosophy is to not lose big during major market declines, making it easier to compound wealth over the long run.
The Advisor is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The views expressed herein represent the opinions of Advisor, are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as investment advice or to predict or depict the performance of any investment. These views are presented as of the date hereof and are subject to change based on subsequent developments.
In addition, this document contains certain forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results and conditions may differ from the opinions expressed herein. All external data, including the information used to develop the opinions herein, was gathered from sources we consider reliable and believe to be accurate; however, no independent verification has been made and accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither Advisor, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this information. Recipients of the information contained herein should exercise due care and caution prior to making any decision or acting or omitting to act on the basis of the information contained herein. ©2016 Pring Turner Capital Group. All rights reserved.
Is Brazil still a favorite? Bruno Estier, Independent Market Strategist
You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#191258
Jim welcomes back Tom McClellan, Editor of McClellan Financial Publications. Tom comments on his technical work with presidential election cycles, in that the months leading up to an election are usually quite negative. He sees the best odds for a pullback in September lasting into mid-October.
He would then use the period leading up to the election in late October as a buying opportunity, as the months after the election are traditionally strong for the markets.
Tom believes all the major asset classes will come down together this fall. He also discusses global negative interest rates as a bubble which will likely not end well.
Tom gives his outlook on gold and oil as well. He is bearish on gold short term but believes it will bottom by the end of the year, providing a great buying opportunity.
Also in this segment, Cris Sheridan has this week’s Market Wrap-up, and Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors, covers the commodity markets with Jim.
About James J Puplava CFP