Technical Analysis Archive

Harvest, the world’s fastest-growing investor network, today announced a ground-breaking partnership to make the best thinking and most innovative strategies of the world’s leading technical analysts available to investors – all in one place.

The new partnership between Harvest and the CMT Association provides proprietary access to videos featuring presentations of leading market analysts such as Ralph Acampora, Chris Verrone, Barry Ritholtz, Robin Griffiths, Hank Pruden, Dan Wantrobski and many others from the Association’s 44th Annual Symposium.

This development builds on the success of the collaboration between Harvest and the CMT Association to bring the educational content from live events, seminars, and workshops to a global audience through an industry leading digital platform.

“The CMT Association is excited to expand our relationship with Harvest. Our mission is to advance the discipline of technical analysis. Harvest is essential to bringing the latest developments, applications, and market analysis to a global network of investment professionals.,” said Tyler Wood, Managing Director of Global Business Development for the CMT Association. “The exchange of ideas used to happen exclusively at live meetings, but the world is flat now and our members are using technology to connect 24 hours a day anywhere in the world. Content has to be accessible anytime from anywhere, that’s what Harvest provides.”

The new Harvest-CMT Association Symposium Network features topics including:

  • “Cross-Asset Strategy: Technical Tools for Global Macro Investing”
  • “TechoQuant; The Merger of Technical Market Insights and Systematic Trading”
  • “A Tandem Walk Down Wall Street: Two New Statistical Tools”
  • “New Ideas in Technical Analysis”
  • “Implied Volatility as a Market Indicator”

“Harvest is always seeking to partner with top investors and their credentialing, professional associations,” said Peter Hans, CEO of Harvest. “The CMT Association has long been a supporter of our platform and we are looking forward to welcoming more of its members into our network.”

Full-access subscriptions to the Harvest-CMT Association Symposium Network are $199 per user annually and include archives from the 2017 and 2016 annual events. Symposium registrants receive free access after registration. Access includes video, slides, asynchronous conversation and networking of all presentations, panel discussions, workshop sessions, and bonus interviews,

About the CMT Association

CMT Association is a global credentialing body with nearly 50 years of service to the financial industry. We believe technical analysis provides the tools to successfully navigate the gap between intrinsic value and market price across all asset classes through a disciplined, systematic approach to market behavior and the law of supply and demand. The Chartered Market Technician® (CMT) designation marks the highest level of training within the discipline and is the preeminent designation for practitioners worldwide. Earning the CMT demonstrates mastery of a core body of knowledge of investment risk in portfolio management; including quantitative approaches to market research and rules based trading system design and testing. We strive to further the profession with diverse opportunities in continuing education, advocacy, ethics awareness, and networking.

About Harvest

Harvest is a digital distribution and behavioral data platform that enables financial firms to compliantly reach connect a targeted, investment-focused audience, in scale. Harvest’s machine learning technology offers financial firms the ability to optimize data-driven sales & marketing ROI. By sharing and distributing insights on Harvest, firms can engage with a reader base of more than 500,000 institutional investors, RIAs, financial planners and High Net Worth investors.

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Range Bound NDX

Posted August 31, 2017 By APTA.org.au

Originally posted on StockCharts.com at http://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2017/08/range-bound-ndx.html

by Bruce Fraser

Mr. Wyckoff called his charting methodology ‘Tape Reading’. Determining the present position and probable future direction of prices from their own action. Prices have tendencies which can be detected on the charts. Context is the idea that recent price action will provide clues about what to expect next. This is at the core of how to use and profit from the Wyckoff Method.

In our Market Outlook and Stocks Review webinars (Wednesday 3pm PDT), Roman and I work with our attendees to develop mastery around anticipating the tendencies of the markets. One of the most valuable mastery skills is identifying (early on) when a trending market becomes a ‘Range Bound’ market. In the June Market Outlook sessions, we began observing a ‘Change of Character’ in the Nasdaq 100 Index. This change of context, we concluded, would have consequences for the action of this index for the weeks, and possibly months to come. Let’s review how the Wyckoff Method informs our analysis and tactics with a case study of the current position of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Index.

A ’Reverse Use of Trendlines’ establishes an upward stride and a trend channel. A Throwover (and Overbought condition) of the channel is accompanied by a rush upward into a Buying Climax (BCLX). This crescendo of the NDX arrives after a long uptrend. Note the minor test of the BCLX four days later. Then a massive down bar jolts the NDX with a return back into the channel. This is a ‘Change of Character’ and Wyckoffians would conclude that a ‘Range Bound’ market will likely follow. Resistance is formed by the BCLX and Support by the low of the Automatic Reaction (AR). Volume is high off the peak and indicates the presence of Supply. Large interests and possibly the Composite Operator (C.O.) are selling large amounts of stock. We look for three general scenarios to accompany a new Range Bound environment. First is a pause in the uptrend, called a Reaccumulation. Second is a reversal into a bear market decline through the process of Distribution (rarer as bear markets do not come along often). Third is an intermediate decline that does not interrupt the major bull market uptrend. In all cases the uptrend is paused for some period of time. Reaccumulation is most common as it is a pause in prices that eventually resumes into a fresh uptrend, and tends to happen repeatedly in a bull market. But, we must be on the lookout for scenarios 2 and 3.

Note how NDX slightly exceeds the AR defined Support Line but then it holds at the July low (which is also a breach of the trend channel). A rally follows with 12 up days to the Resistance defined by the BCLX. This rally has climactic qualities and is not sustainable. Then an Upthrust and an outside reversal bar in late July concludes the advance. This is latent Supply which reemerges with a bulge in volume. This indicates that selling and Supply is not yet exhausted.

How can Wyckoff help to determine what to do next? Whether Reaccumulation or Distribution, a Range Bound market begins the same basic way with a climactic stopping action and the presence of active supply (selling). If Reaccumulation is forming there will be evidence of selling becoming exhausted and the renewed absorption of these shares near the completion of the Reaccumulation. Look for volatility to diminish, over time, as the trading range matures. If Distribution is forming volatility will continue and volume will remain high as price drops toward Support (this can happen repeatedly). Now, we need to see if NDX can decline toward Support. We will watch for how quickly it declines and if volume expands. Generally diminishing price spread and modest volume would be a bullish sign. A higher low above the early July low would also be constructive for a Reaccumulation. Distribution would likely produce price lows below the Support line and the prior lows and would be labeled a Sign of Weakness (SOW).

Recently NDX was hovering around the BCLX level. This is important Resistance. It would be better to initiate buying closer to Support or after a robust Jump above the trading range. If NDX can Jump up and out of the current trading range a new uptrend could be beginning. Diminishing volatility and volume after the Jump out would be good evidence of the completion of absorption. If Distribution is forming we would look for a SOW (possibly more than one) followed by a rally (possibly more than one) into a Last Point of Supply (LPSY).

Range Bound markets can go on and on. Point and Figure count objectives grow bigger during these periods of trendless prices. If Reaccumulation is forming then stock is going from weak hands to strong (absorption). The C.O. will do all it can to keep prices trendless until every share is vacuumed up before prices begin rising. Whether Distribution or Reaccumulation is forming, Context provides a road map for what to expect next as conditions unfold.

All the Best,

Bruce

For more on Distribution (click here and click here)

For more on Reaccumulation (click here and click here)

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This article was originally published on MarketWatch.com at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-theory-is-telling-us-to-chill-about-the-health-of-the-bull-market-2017-08-22

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Did the bull market end on Aug. 7, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 closed at their all-time highs?

The Dow Theory is surprisingly sanguine in its answer: Maybe, maybe not.

However, this market-timing system is unambiguous about how we should behave: Since a definitive answer won’t be known for quite some time, we should give the bull market the benefit of the doubt.

In other words, we need to chill.

The Dow Theory is the oldest stock-market timing system that remains in widespread use today. It was created a century ago by William Peter Hamilton, who at the time was editor of The Wall Street Journal.

Before discussing what needs to happen for the Dow Theory to provide a definitive answer to whether the Aug. 7 high was the final top of the bull market, I need to acknowledge how surreal it is that so many investors are even wondering whether the bull market remains alive. After all, it was just a few short weeks ago — early July, in fact — that the Dow Theory declared the bull market to be alive and well. And, despite the market’s recent turmoil, the Dow industrials DJIA, +0.90%  and S&P 500 SPX, +0.99%  are just 2% below their all-time highs of 22,118.42 and 2,480.91, respectively.

The stock market must jump over three successive hurdles to generate a bear-market signal, and it hasn’t even cleared the first.

One reason so many investors are nevertheless concerned: The Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT, +0.87%   has nose-dived and is now 7% below its all-time high from mid-July. In the words of Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts: “Historically, the economically sensitive Transports have often served as a canary in the coal mine, warning investors of a deteriorating outlook for the economy and corporate profits.”

Ominous though this sounds, however, Moroney and the other Dow Theorists I track are still bullish. That’s because the stock market must jump over three successive hurdles to generate a bear-market signal, and it hasn’t even cleared the first.

Those three steps are:

1. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average must undergo a “significant” decline after hitting new highs — “significant” both in terms of time and magnitude.

2. In their subsequent “significant” rally following the decline referred to in step No. 1, either one or both of these Dow averages must fall to surpass their highs.

3. Both averages must then fall below their lows registered at the bottom of the decline referred to in step No. 1.

Notice that I put “significant” in quotes. That’s because there isn’t universal agreement on what magnitude of market moves is necessary to satisfy. Some Dow Theorists argue that, per Hamilton’s original indications, a move under the first step isn’t “significant” unless it lasts at least three weeks and corrects at least one-third of its previous move. On this interpretation, the market hasn’t come close to that first step.

To be sure, Jack Schannep, editor of TheDowTheory.com and one of the Dow Theorists I track, believes that in today’s fast-paced market environment, a smaller and shorter move can still count as “significant.” Under his version of the Theory, he told me in an email earlier this week, even a 3% pullback over a 10-day period qualifies.

Notice carefully, however, that even using Schannep’s more sensitive triggers, the stock market still hasn’t satisfied Step No. 1 of the three-step sell signal process, since only the Dow Transports satisfy.

Read: ‘Bull market check list remains intact’ despite pullback, Morgan Stanley says

Meanwhile, another core principle of the Dow Theory becomes particularly relevant: It holds that the previous signal is assumed to remain in force until it is reversed. And, since that previous signal was a buy signal, we should assume the bull market is still alive.

The more significant question investors should be asking: Why are many investors so eager to declare that the Aug. 7 high was the bull market top? From a contrarian point of view, of course, their obsession is a positive omen, since the hallmark of a major top is a denial that a top is imminent.

That’s not what we’re seeing today.

In fact, my own measures of market sentiment are also showing a healthy level of skepticism among stock-market timers about the bull’s health. While there are no guarantees, that increases the likelihood that the bull market’s final high is still ahead of us.

Now read: Here’s the shocking truth about the Russell 2000’s P/E ratio

For more information, including descriptions of the Hulbert Sentiment Indices, go to The Hulbert Financial Digest or email mark@hulbertratings.com.

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This article was originally published by Financial Sense at http://www.financialsense.com/fs-staff/hindenburg-omens-flashing-major-warning-signal-stock-market?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly

Today’s chart comes from Jason Goepfert at SentimentTrader.com. Last month, Jason told FS Insider that sentiment readings were reaching extremes, even surpassing 2000 tech bubble-levels of euphoria, which was a “very troubling sign” for the stock market (see Rydex Trader Bullishness Surpasses 2000 Tech Bubble).

This most recent data looks at the total number of Hindenburg omens for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Russell 2000. In sum, “we’re seeing a market that is split between winners and losers to a degree rarely seen in history,” Jason wrote in yesterday’s Sentiment Report.

hindenburg omens market tops
Source: SentimenTrader.com

You may be asking yourself, what is a Hindenburg omen? Here’s what Investopedia has to say:

DEFINITION of ‘Hindenburg Omen’
A technical indicator named after the famous crash of the German airship of the late 1930s. The Hindenburg omen was developed to predict the potential for a financial market crash. It is created by monitoring the number of securities that form new 52-week highs relative to the number of securities that form new 52-week lows – the number of securities must be abnormally large. This criteria is deemed to be met when both numbers are greater than 2.2% of the total number of issues that trade on the NYSE (for that specific day).

Additionally, they write:

Traders use an abnormally high number of 52-week highs/lows because it suggests that market participants are starting to become unsure of the market’s future direction and therefore could be due for a major correction. Proponents of this indicator argue that it has been very accurate in predicting sharp sell-offs in the past and that there are few indicators that can predict a market crash as accurately.

For regular updates on market sentiment and other technical measures, we encourage our readers to follow SentimenTrader’s daily reports and research. You can sign up for a free trial on their website (sentimentrader.com), follow them on Twitter @sentimentrader, or through their premium feed at $10/mo by clicking here.

Read next:

CLICK HERE to subscribe to the free weekly Best of Financial Sense Newsletter .

Next APTA Meeting – Tues 1st August 2017

Posted July 27, 2017 By APTA.org.au

Next Meeting

Tues 1st August 2017

The next meeting of the Australian Professional Technical Analysts (APTA) Incorporated will be held at the City Tattersalls Club, 194-204 Pitt Street, Sydney at 6.00pm on Tuesday 1st August 2017.

* Please note that APTA and CMT members receive 3 Continuing Education (CE) Credits for the CMT and AMT qualifications for attending the meeting.

Speakers:

Your Money, Your View

Topic:

Your Money, Your View

Biography:

This is an interactive meeting for members to bring their charts of interest, present their views and seek the opinions of fellow members. The intent is to analyse a diverse range of stocks, commodities, currencies, fx & global indices.

Members are asked to submit their chart of interest with any annotations and markups on a jpeg or pdf file that will be projected on screen to enable discussion.

Please e-mail your copy to treasurer@apta.org.au by 7pm on Monday 31st July 2017. You should identify the time frame & the ticker code.

Being an interactive meeting any attendees may offer their views or thoughts on any particular chart.

There will also be the option to suggest a chart from the floor of the meeting.

Cost:

APTA and CMT Members $FREE

Non-members $30

Note:

All non-members must register and pay prior to the event. Late registration will not be accepted.

Non-members WILL NOT be admitted without prior registration and payment.

Payment WILL NOT be accepted at the event.

APTA and CMT members ARE NOT REQUIRED to register.

Eventbrite - Australian Professional Technical Analysts (APTA) 7th February 2017 Meeting

CMT Members:

Following a collaborative agreement between the Australian Professional Technical Analysts (APTA) Inc and the CMT Association (formerly MTA), members of the CMT receive honorary APTA membership and are entitled to attend all APTA meetings. The APTA Management Committee extend a warm welcome to our CMT colleagues.

APTA Meeting FAQs:

How can I attend APTA meetings?

APTA and CMT members may attend normal meetings at no charge. APTA and CMT members may attend the Annual APTA Luncheon and Christmas Party at a discounted price. 
Non-APTA and CMT members may also attend normal APTA meetings but must register and pay $30 on-line prior to the event. Registration for the Annual APTA Annual Luncheon is more expensive and will be announced in a timely manner by the Committee.

Can I pay APTA at the door to attend a normal meeting?

No. Unfortunately, all guests must register and pay online at least 2 hours prior to the meeting. Payments can not be taken at the meeting and any non-member who has failed to register and pay will not gain admittance.

Can I pay APTA at the door to attend the Annual APTA Luncheon or Christmas Party?

No. Unfortunately, ALL attendees (including APTA and CMT members) must register and pay online at least 2 days prior to the luncheon and 5 days prior to the Christmas Party. Payments can not be taken at the luncheon or party and any person who has failed to register and pay will not gain admittance.

How can I get the details of the event?

Details are available at the APTA website at www.apta.org.au .

How can I be notified of upcoming meetings?

Join the APTA Newsletter mailing list at www.apta.org.au .

Could I invite a friend/colleague to come along to an APTA meeting?

Of course. If you have any friend/colleague that may be interested in attending as well, feel free to invite them, but please remember that they must register and pay prior to the event.

Comments or questions are welcome.

* indicates required field

Point & Figure Diary

Posted July 20, 2017 By APTA.org.au

Artricle originally published at StockCharts.com by Bruce Fraser.

http://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2017/07/point–figure-diary.html

Regular readers have been following the epic saga dating back to 2011, when Dr. Hank Pruden published his Point and Figure (PnF) count for the new bull market. This count projected to a range of 17,600 to 19,200 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU).  When this objective was met we said: ‘But wait, there is more’. Almost exactly a year ago, in this blog, we revisited the original Accumulation and found that an additional count could be added to the PnF price objective.

The 17,600 to 19,200 count was very useful as the $INDU was stopped in this range for more than two years. That range produced a Stepping Stone Reaccumulation PnF count.  The larger Accumulation count and the new Reaccumulation count approximately confirmed each other (click here to review these PnF charts). The cluster of count objectives target 22,000 to 24,500. As we move toward these price targets, new Reconfirming counts continue to be generated. This brief update is to illustrate a new count that arrived in the month of June since our last post on this topic (these PnF counts can form quickly).  Links to the prior posts are below.

We use 60-minute data and ATR (20) scaling to generate this PnF study.  In the month of June, a Reaccumulation formed matching the previous and larger PnF count. Recall that when the Reaccumulation count approximately matches the prior count the trend is often set to resume. This week $INDU jumped to a new high just as the most recent Reaccumulation equaled the prior objective. This is an obscure timing tool that often comes in handy (click here for more on this technique).

As the Dow Jones Industrials stair steps upward, it is appropriate to ask if the count generated from the chart above is the final high? Recall that our price objective window reaches to nearly 24,500.  We will continue to use our Wyckoff tool box of chart analysis, trendline studies and Point and Figure counts to light the way to the conclusion of this campaign, wherever it may take us.

All the Best,

Bruce

Additional Reading:

Point and Figure Pie in the Sky? (click here for a link)

More Pie. Bigger Sky! (click here for a link)

Exceptional Education, Meaningful Mission

Posted July 19, 2017 By APTA.org.au

Have you ever wanted to be a part of an organization with clarity of purpose? With international reach and growing global membership? With integrity and core values you agree with? Do you desire to give back to the industry and take part in a mission driven body of professionals managing market risk?

Through your participation in various events, we know you recognize the educational benefits of membership. As an investment professional, we encourage you to take the next step as an advocate of professional ethics, accountability and competency. The next 50 years of the CMT Association will depend on even greater engagement from the investment industry and professionals like you.

The Australian Professional Technical Analysts (APTA), in association with the CMT Association drives value through three main areas: the CMT curriculum, educational programming, and our growing professional network:

 

Welcome to the CMT Association

Posted July 19, 2017 By APTA.org.au

After nearly 50 years of service to the financial industry, the Market Technicians Association proposes that we become the CMT Association. The Association’s leadership including Board Members, founding members, and senior staff, recommend that members approve changing our organization’s name. Having carefully considered all implications of the legal name change, the leadership feels that it is imperative to rationalize the number of acronyms out in the industry. We hope you’ll read the description below of the rationale and view the short presentation above. We’ll need your feedback on this proposal before we introduce the new brand to the industry. Pending approval by a vote of the Membership, you’ll see the new look and name anywhere we’re out in public, like our website, publications, digital webcasts, and on our social media outlets including LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter. You will see new signage and materials at your local chapters, as well.

The new brand name better matches what the Association has become: the provider of the preeminent global designation for financial professionals committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis. When our Association began, we operated for years without a credentialing body, exam process, or even a formal charter. Since our legal incorporation in 1973, we’ve been the Market Technicians Association, but the Chartered Market Technician designation was not offered until 1988.  Over the years, we preserved the MTA name and did not consolidate the branding of our two acronyms – MTA and CMT.

Today, the CMT Program is central to every initiative and represents the professional identity of nearly all our Members. The new name reflects our continued commitment to our global members and unique capability to advance the discipline of technical analysis among industry professionals. This name change allows us to consolidate the MTA and CMT acronyms to improve our brand recognition and elevate the prominence of our CMT charterholders’ designations worldwide.

Our rebranding effort intends to align with industry best practice. In our field, other notable organizations are designation-centric, such as the CFA Institute, CFP Board, and CAIA Association. We also aimed to reduce confusion in the marketplace around our multiple acronyms, and better match our name to our core value proposition and the constituents we serve. A small team of staff and volunteers worked with professional designers to create something crisp, approachable, professional, modern and connected.

CMT Association Logo

proposed logo as part of 2017 brand recommendation

The “M” of the logo creatively represents a bar chart, but it’s stylized and emphasized through color to connote the importance of “Market” within our name. The study of price behavior is about markets in comparison to the study of fundamentals and the assessment of companies. Our decision to use the acronym in the logo was also inspired by the diversity of our members. A “CMT” is a portfolio manager, a research analyst, a financial advisor, an asset allocator, a quantitative trading system developer, and many more things – but always a professional committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis and upholding the highest ethical standards in the industry.

 

Description of design choices

 

We hope you like this new look for the CMT Association and welcome your feedback through this brief survey. Look out for more updates and a broader industry presence as we continually try to better serve our members with the preeminent global designation and highest member value in all our programming and initiatives.

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