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CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Did the bull market end on Aug. 7, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 closed at their all-time highs?

The Dow Theory is surprisingly sanguine in its answer: Maybe, maybe not.

However, this market-timing system is unambiguous about how we should behave: Since a definitive answer won’t be known for quite some time, we should give the bull market the benefit of the doubt.

In other words, we need to chill.

The Dow Theory is the oldest stock-market timing system that remains in widespread use today. It was created a century ago by William Peter Hamilton, who at the time was editor of The Wall Street Journal.

Before discussing what needs to happen for the Dow Theory to provide a definitive answer to whether the Aug. 7 high was the final top of the bull market, I need to acknowledge how surreal it is that so many investors are even wondering whether the bull market remains alive. After all, it was just a few short weeks ago — early July, in fact — that the Dow Theory declared the bull market to be alive and well. And, despite the market’s recent turmoil, the Dow industrials DJIA, +0.90%  and S&P 500 SPX, +0.99%  are just 2% below their all-time highs of 22,118.42 and 2,480.91, respectively.

The stock market must jump over three successive hurdles to generate a bear-market signal, and it hasn’t even cleared the first.

One reason so many investors are nevertheless concerned: The Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT, +0.87%   has nose-dived and is now 7% below its all-time high from mid-July. In the words of Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts: “Historically, the economically sensitive Transports have often served as a canary in the coal mine, warning investors of a deteriorating outlook for the economy and corporate profits.”

Ominous though this sounds, however, Moroney and the other Dow Theorists I track are still bullish. That’s because the stock market must jump over three successive hurdles to generate a bear-market signal, and it hasn’t even cleared the first.

Those three steps are:

1. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average must undergo a “significant” decline after hitting new highs — “significant” both in terms of time and magnitude.

2. In their subsequent “significant” rally following the decline referred to in step No. 1, either one or both of these Dow averages must fall to surpass their highs.

3. Both averages must then fall below their lows registered at the bottom of the decline referred to in step No. 1.

Notice that I put “significant” in quotes. That’s because there isn’t universal agreement on what magnitude of market moves is necessary to satisfy. Some Dow Theorists argue that, per Hamilton’s original indications, a move under the first step isn’t “significant” unless it lasts at least three weeks and corrects at least one-third of its previous move. On this interpretation, the market hasn’t come close to that first step.

To be sure, Jack Schannep, editor of and one of the Dow Theorists I track, believes that in today’s fast-paced market environment, a smaller and shorter move can still count as “significant.” Under his version of the Theory, he told me in an email earlier this week, even a 3% pullback over a 10-day period qualifies.

Notice carefully, however, that even using Schannep’s more sensitive triggers, the stock market still hasn’t satisfied Step No. 1 of the three-step sell signal process, since only the Dow Transports satisfy.

Read: ‘Bull market check list remains intact’ despite pullback, Morgan Stanley says

Meanwhile, another core principle of the Dow Theory becomes particularly relevant: It holds that the previous signal is assumed to remain in force until it is reversed. And, since that previous signal was a buy signal, we should assume the bull market is still alive.

The more significant question investors should be asking: Why are many investors so eager to declare that the Aug. 7 high was the bull market top? From a contrarian point of view, of course, their obsession is a positive omen, since the hallmark of a major top is a denial that a top is imminent.

That’s not what we’re seeing today.

In fact, my own measures of market sentiment are also showing a healthy level of skepticism among stock-market timers about the bull’s health. While there are no guarantees, that increases the likelihood that the bull market’s final high is still ahead of us.

Now read: Here’s the shocking truth about the Russell 2000’s P/E ratio

For more information, including descriptions of the Hulbert Sentiment Indices, go to The Hulbert Financial Digest or email

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CHICAGOJune 20, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — CME Group

News Release

Tthe world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, and BarclayHedge, recognized top managed futures industry leaders at the sixth annual Managed Futures Pinnacle Awards last night.

The winner of this year’s Pinnacle Achievement Award is Toby Crabel, Chairman and CIO of Crabel Capital Management. Crabel began his trading career in 1980 with RB&H Financial Services. His early philosophy was that strategies should capture enduring and explainable market participant behavior. Finding these patterns particularly evident in very short-term market patterns in the futures and foreign currency markets, Toby described the phenomenon in both his commodity advisory letter, “The Active Trader,” and his 1989 book, “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakouts.”

Crabel Capital’s approach of using scientific, evidence-based research to capture patterns in market behavior continues to this day, with Crabel leading the ongoing research effort and mentoring researchers that have joined the firm.

More information about the awards and the winners, as well as a video about their achievements, can be found at The complete list of award recipients follows:


2016 Best Diversified CTA ($500 million+ AUM)


2016 Best Diversified CTA (Less than $500 million AUM)

Splendor Capital Management, Ltd.

5-Year Best Diversified CTA ($500 million+ AUM)

Two Sigma

5-Year Best Diversified CTA (Less than $500 million AUM)



2016 Best Single Sector CTA

361 Capital

5-Year Best Single Sector CTA

Goldman Management, Inc.


2016 Best Multi-Advisor Futures Fund

UOB-SM Asset Management Pte Ltd

5-Year Best Multi-Advisor Futures Fund

AC Investment Management


2016 Best Options Strategy

LJM Partners, Ltd.

5-Year Best Options Strategy

Warrington Asset Management


Higher Moment Capital, LP




Splendor Capital Management, Ltd.


Goldenwise Capital Management, Inc.

Nominees were chosen based on quantitative data provided by BarclayHedge for the various award categories. All data was collected and analyzed by BarclayHedge. CME Group can neither verify nor negate the accuracy of the data used to calculate nominees and winners.

About CME Group
As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group ( is where the world comes to manage risk.  Through its exchanges, CME Group offers the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, including futures and options based on interest ratesequity indexesforeign exchangeenergyagricultural products and metals.  CME Group provides electronic trading globally on its CME Globex platform.  The company also offers clearing and settlement services across asset classes for exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives through its clearinghouses CME Clearing and CME Clearing Europe.  CME Group’s products and services ensure that businesses around the world can effectively manage risk and achieve growth.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.  CBOT, Chicago Board of Trade, KCBT and Kansas City Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.  NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.  COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc.  Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.  All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About BarclayHedge
BarclayHedge is a leading independent, research based provider of information services to the alternative investment industry. Founded in 1985, Barclay has been publishing performance data and rankings based on that data since 1990 and currently maintains data on more than 12,000 alternative investment vehicles. BarclayHedge provides access to its Managed Futures, Hedge Fund, and Fund of Funds databases to thousands of investors. Barclay’s 10 managed futures indices, 18 hedge fund indices, and 7 UCITS indices are universally recognized as alternative investment performance benchmarks and are utilized by investment professionals around the globe.

The BarclayHedge team includes 20 research specialists, programmers, and data administration personnel experienced in alternative investments, and have been under the continuous leadership of its founder, Sol Waksman, since its inception.



CME Group Media Contact, Alex Gorbokon, 312.930.3193, Anita Liskey, 312.466.4613,,, BarclayHedge, Ltd. Media Contacts, Sol Waksman, 641.472.3456,,
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By Emily E.A. Meyer

Shares of Netflix (NFLX​) are still in the dumps after the Walt Disney Co. (DIS) said earlier this week it would pull its content off the streaming service, which worried investors about the long-term effect on earnings. The stock fell two percent Thursday after another two percent drop Wednesday, which breached support levels and put shares at risk of another move lower.

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Source:: MTA News


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Tuesday, 12th September 2017

Sofitel Sydney Wentworth

AIMA Australia invite you to join us at our Annual Forum on Tuesday 12th September 2017 at the Sofitel Sydney Wentworth.

The Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) Australia Forum is the official annual industry event for alternative investment managers, investors, policy makers and advisers to exchange viewpoints and experiences that foster best practice.

Created for the industry by the industry, the full-day forum showcases the skills and perspectives of leading Australian and international fund managers, attracting a record number of local and international delegates each year.

Visit for more information.

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By Emily E.A. Meyer

A 16 percent gain this year for shares of Nike Inc. (NKE) tells a story of healthy institutional buying while other athletic names such as Foot Locker Inc. (FL) and Under Armour Inc. (UA) lag. Since the shoe maker’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings announcement on June 29, the stock continues to lead the sector, clearly steered by institutional buying. Betting on leading stocks, accompanied with strong institutional activity, can be a great recipe for long-term investors.

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Source:: MTA News


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By Emily E.A. Meyer

As the Dow reaches another milestone, other indexes whittle away at some of the market’s bullish underpinnings.

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Source:: MTA News


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