News Archive

Exceptional Education, Meaningful Mission

Posted July 19, 2017 By APTA.org.au

Have you ever wanted to be a part of an organization with clarity of purpose? With international reach and growing global membership? With integrity and core values you agree with? Do you desire to give back to the industry and take part in a mission driven body of professionals managing market risk?

Through your participation in various events, we know you recognize the educational benefits of membership. As an investment professional, we encourage you to take the next step as an advocate of professional ethics, accountability and competency. The next 50 years of the CMT Association will depend on even greater engagement from the investment industry and professionals like you.

The Australian Professional Technical Analysts (APTA), in association with the CMT Association drives value through three main areas: the CMT curriculum, educational programming, and our growing professional network:

 

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APTA and CMT Association FAQs

Posted July 19, 2017 By APTA.org.au

APTA and CMT Association FAQs

What is the CMT Association and what do they have to do with APTA? 
CMT Association information Click here.
APTA and the CMT Association have a strategic partnership in Australia, offering honorary membership to CMT Association members.

How can I learn more about theCMT Association ?
Watch the following short video

What are the benefits of an APTA or CMT Association Membership ?
The three main benefits of an APTA or CMT Association membership are:
1. Qualifications – CMT Examination (CMT Association) or AMT – An APTA qualification.
2. Education
3. Networking

MTA Benefits Click here

BENEFIT 1: QUALIFICATIONS / CMT EXAMINATION

What qualification does APTA offer?
APTA qualifications

What is the value of the CMT examination ?
Click here

What is the structure of the CMT examination ?
Click here

How can I get detailed information about the CMT examination ?
Click here

BENEFIT 2: EDUCATION

The educational resources of the CMT Association are available to APTA members by registering at the APTA website.

The 8 sources of education for an APTA or CMT Association member:

1.  Student Newsletter

2. Knowledge Base

3. Educational Webcasts

4. Podcasts

5. Journal of Technical Analysis

6. CMT Newsletter

7. CMT Association Library

8. Technically Speaking Newsletter

BENEFIT 3: NETWORKING

Who presents to the APTA Meetings ?
Institutional Traders & Analysts (banks, hedge funds, brokers) and APTA members present their trading and analysis techniques.

APTA Meetings are free for APTA and CMT Association members to attend.

What are some of the benefits of attending APTA Meetings ?

Educational content (learn new market strategies)
Networking opportunities (meet people in the industry and exchange business details)

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Welcome to the CMT Association

Posted July 19, 2017 By APTA.org.au

After nearly 50 years of service to the financial industry, the Market Technicians Association proposes that we become the CMT Association. The Association’s leadership including Board Members, founding members, and senior staff, recommend that members approve changing our organization’s name. Having carefully considered all implications of the legal name change, the leadership feels that it is imperative to rationalize the number of acronyms out in the industry. We hope you’ll read the description below of the rationale and view the short presentation above. We’ll need your feedback on this proposal before we introduce the new brand to the industry. Pending approval by a vote of the Membership, you’ll see the new look and name anywhere we’re out in public, like our website, publications, digital webcasts, and on our social media outlets including LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter. You will see new signage and materials at your local chapters, as well.

The new brand name better matches what the Association has become: the provider of the preeminent global designation for financial professionals committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis. When our Association began, we operated for years without a credentialing body, exam process, or even a formal charter. Since our legal incorporation in 1973, we’ve been the Market Technicians Association, but the Chartered Market Technician designation was not offered until 1988.  Over the years, we preserved the MTA name and did not consolidate the branding of our two acronyms – MTA and CMT.

Today, the CMT Program is central to every initiative and represents the professional identity of nearly all our Members. The new name reflects our continued commitment to our global members and unique capability to advance the discipline of technical analysis among industry professionals. This name change allows us to consolidate the MTA and CMT acronyms to improve our brand recognition and elevate the prominence of our CMT charterholders’ designations worldwide.

Our rebranding effort intends to align with industry best practice. In our field, other notable organizations are designation-centric, such as the CFA Institute, CFP Board, and CAIA Association. We also aimed to reduce confusion in the marketplace around our multiple acronyms, and better match our name to our core value proposition and the constituents we serve. A small team of staff and volunteers worked with professional designers to create something crisp, approachable, professional, modern and connected.

CMT Association Logo

proposed logo as part of 2017 brand recommendation

The “M” of the logo creatively represents a bar chart, but it’s stylized and emphasized through color to connote the importance of “Market” within our name. The study of price behavior is about markets in comparison to the study of fundamentals and the assessment of companies. Our decision to use the acronym in the logo was also inspired by the diversity of our members. A “CMT” is a portfolio manager, a research analyst, a financial advisor, an asset allocator, a quantitative trading system developer, and many more things – but always a professional committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis and upholding the highest ethical standards in the industry.

 

Description of design choices

 

We hope you like this new look for the CMT Association and welcome your feedback through this brief survey. Look out for more updates and a broader industry presence as we continually try to better serve our members with the preeminent global designation and highest member value in all our programming and initiatives.

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Originally posted at Financial Sense at http://www.financialsense.com/andrew-lo/adaptive-markets-financial-evolution-speed-thought

The influential MIT Professor Andrew Lo joins FS Insider today to discuss his groundbreaking book, Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought, where he persuasively lays out a new framework for understanding the markets, finance, and investor behavior via the “adaptive market hypothesis,” incorporating the fields of biology, neuroscience, psychology, and artificial intelligence. This is a must-read for anyone with a deep interest in the market.

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Originally posted by Financial Sense at http://www.financialsense.com/didier-sornette/supercomputer-betting-market-crash?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly

One of the world’s most powerful supercomputers, retrofitted for trading the stock market, appears to be betting on a crash in the months ahead.

The Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich released its latest Global Bubble Status Report on July 1st. As we discussed with FCO’s director, Didier Sornette, on our podcast in May, they use one of the world’s leading supercomputers to monitor global markets each day for two distinct bubble-like characteristics: faster than exponential price movement and accelerating oscillations (see Podcast: Using a Supercomputer to Trade the Market).

Their July report notes an increasing trend of positive bubbles across multiple asset classes.

Here’s what they say in their “big picture” section:

“One can observe the continuation of a trend in the growth of positive bubbles in the fixed income asset class for the second month. The fraction of stocks diagnosed in a positive bubble state increased this month to exceed 36% compared with 32% last month. Mixed bubble signals still occur only in few commodity indices. We also observe renewed bubble activity in currency pairs.” [source]

Here is the chart where they show the “historical evolution of the fraction of assets within an asset class that show significant bubble signals”:

historical evolution fraction assets

Based on their daily scan of global markets, the Financial Crisis Observatory assigns individual stocks into four different quadrants based on their bubble strength and value score. These four quadrants are then used to create a trading strategy consisting of four different portfolios, which they define as follows (click image to enlarge):

trends portfolios

In looking at each of the four portfolios, it appears that the supercomputer was mostly initiating long positions since March. However, starting in June, the researchers note that there has been a rebound in Contrarian Short portfolios in recent weeks:

“This month, we find that Long portfolios started to develop a drawdown in most portfolios initiated in March, April, May and June 2017. This reflects the stopping of the previously booming markets. Especially, the Contrarian Short portfolios rebounded in recent weeks. Contrarian Portfolios are more delicate to use due to their sensitivity to timing the expected reversal and exhibit very volatile performances, indicating that most of bubbles in the market are still dominating and that fundamentals have not yet played out. We expect trend-following positions to perform in the months following the position set-up and then contrarian positions to over-perform over longer time scales as the predicted corrections play out.”

Here is a chart illustrating each of their four portfolios since June with the rebound in Contrarian Shorts shown in green, which they expect to “over-perform over longer time scales as the predicted corrections play out.”

stock portfolios

Based on the large and growing list of positions in its Contrarian Short portfolio—which includes the FANG stocks—it would appear that FCO’s supercomputer is setting up for some sort of market crash or correction in the months ahead.

To listen to our May interview with Didier Sornette, please log in and click here. To access this month’s Global Bubble Status report with its full list of positions, click here.

CLICK HERE to subscribe to the free weekly Best of Financial Sense Newsletter .
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Article originally posted by Marketwatch on 23 Jun2 2017 at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/legendary-technical-analysts-power-index-works-for-long-term-stock-investing-2017-06-22

by Michael Kahn

Technical analysis can be lucrative for investors who look beyond daily market fluctuations.

Even today, technical analysis still gets a bad rap as being, at best, a self-fulfilling prophecy and, at worst, financial voodoo.

And while its practitioners are usually not good ambassadors for the discipline, that does not take away from its usefulness.

It is true that technical analysis — the study of data generated from the market through trading activity and sentiment — is most often associated with day traders and, unfortunately, get-rich-quick marketing. However, it is perfectly suited for use by traders who hold positions for a few days to a few weeks. And, more importantly, it is useful for investors interested in long-term commitments of several years or more.

For those who say they never met a successful technician, let me introduce Robert B. Peirce, a semi-retired portfolio manager with nearly a half century of success. When Bob sold his stake in his investment firm, the Pittsburgh-based Cookson, Peirce & Co., he had almost a half-billion dollars of assets under management and all of it was under the care of long-term technical analysis.

In fact, his methods for employing technical analysis to portfolio management earned him the 2010 award given by the Market Technicians Association. According to the awards committee, the biggest reason for the honor was his “long track record of running technical-analysis-driven portfolios.”

Peirce took his place next to such charting authorities as John Bollinger, Martin Zweig and Charles H. Dow.

 Trends have limited lives

Perhaps nobody seems to know much about professional investors who employ long-term technical analysis because they don’t talk about it much. Indeed, it makes for bad television because they don’t call tops and bottoms in the market. Peirce himself once said that it is virtually impossible to sell long-term market timing. It’s just not as sexy as trying to prophesize the ebbs and flows that dominate the short-term.

Instead, long-term practitioners of technical analysis look for major trends to exploit. And since these trends are long term, by definition they do not change with the news cycle.

The most recent example was the June 9 technology sector selloff, which got pundits scrambling to declare the end of the reign of these leaders and trouble for the market as a whole. To a long-term investor, one day or even one week of volatility is but a blip on a chart.

His approach recognizes that leadership changes in the market over time. There will be periods when growth beats value, or when one market capitalization leads and then lags the others, and the goal is recognize this in order to make money in any environment. This allows him to buy small-cap stocks when they look strong, and by following a disciplined sell methodology, he may end up in large-cap value stocks at a different point in the market cycle.

The whole idea is that trends have limited lives. If you wait too long to get in you should just look for something that is timelier. If you wait too long to get out, you give up too much of your gain. Sometimes sectors stay strong for years, but they are usually strong for 12-18 months.

Peirce’s ‘power index’

Bob uses a combination of indicators based on market cycles, sentiment, breadth, market strength, and monetary indicators. While he tracks more than 70 of them, he trims them down to the 15 with the best recent records, revising the set every January. In this way, his model adapts to an ever-changing market over time.

If the majority of indicators are bullish, then he adopts a more bullish stance in his portfolio and even applies leverage when appropriate. In order to decide how aggressive to be, he created what he calls the “power index,” which is an overbought/oversold indicator based on market breadth.

The theory is that a strong market has strong breadth, which means a larger percentage of stocks are rising than falling. The opposite is true for a weak market.

But as with all overbought/oversold indicators, when it swings too far in one direction, it also tells him to take action. If he thinks it is a bull market, a very low reading tells him it is time to put new cash to work. If he thinks it’s a bear market, a very high reading tells him to use the strength to sell positions, as needed.

In other words, it fine-tunes what he was already doing: participating in a bull market or sitting out a bear market.

In a weak market, breadth should be weak. However, it can become so weak that it indicates huge levels of fear and dislike for stocks. That can signal good buying opportunities.

Over his career, Peirce has shared his thinking freely with colleagues because he was not trying to promote a “black box” style as so many others were trying to do. He also compiled a solid track record of long-term calls. Again, there is very little media coverage when he makes them because we will not know if he is right or wrong for years.

Dow call in 2010

But in May 2010, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was hovering near 10,500, he said: “I believe we are in an ongoing bull market that could have a long way to go.” He also recognized the potential for short-term weakness (May and June were down months) but the overriding goal was not to be shaken out of his long positions in a bull market.

Bob lamented that the biggest disappointment of his career has been that the individual investor has not embraced long-term market timing. Again, that is because he operates in the long-term where patience is a virtue and media soundbites are rare.

And what does he think about the stock market now? He is still bullish heading into the summer months and encouraged by what he sees. However, since he is not in the prediction business, he’ll let the indicators guide him each month.

Michael Kahn, a chartered market technician (CMT), is a columnist for MarketWatch as well as Barrons.com, where he writes the “Getting Technical” column. He is the author of three books on charting and comments on technical analysis on his Twitter feed.

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By Maya Ganguly

Even today, technical analysis still gets a bad rap as being, at best, a self-fulfilling prophecy and, at worst, financial voodoo.
And while its practitioners are usually not good ambassadors for the discipline, that does not take away from its usefulness.

It is true that technical analysis — the study of data generated from the market through trading activity and sentiment — is most often associated with day traders and, unfortunately, get-rich-quick marketing. However, it is perfectly suited for use by traders who hold positions for a few days to a few weeks. And, more importantly, it is useful for investors interested …read more

Source:: MTA News

      

By Shane Skwarek

In this issue…

  • CAN WE IMPROVE SECTOR ROTATION? by: Corey Hoffstein
  • GUILLOTINE INVESTING – KEEPING YOUR HEAD WHILE OTHERS ARE LOSING THEIRS by: KD Angle, reviewed by Michael Carr, CMT
  • BEHAVIORAL FINANCE BEYOND THE MARKETS: A REAL-TIME CASE STUDY OF RUSSIA’S MILITARY RESURGENCE by: Matt Lampert, Alyssa Hayden and Alan Hall
  • BONDS OR STOCKS? INVESTORS ARE BUYING BOTH by: Chad Shoop, CMT
  • THINK INCOME AND GROWTH DON’T EXIST IN THIS MARKET? THINK AGAIN by: Cambria Investment Management
  • ELLIOTT WAVE GRAND SUPER CYCLE ANALYSIS OF THE S&P 500 CASH INDEX – SUPPORTED BY CLASSIC TECNHICAL ANALYSIS by: Lara Iriarte, CMT
  • THE ‘GRAND OLD PARTY’ AND THE U.S. DOLLAR …read more

    Source:: MTA News

          

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