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Ralph Acampora: Dow Theory Divergence Signals Caution

Posted June 16, 2017 By APTA.org.au

http://www.financialsense.com/ralph-acampora/dow-theory-divergence-signals-caution?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly

The following is a summary of our recent interview with well-known market technician Ralph Acampora, which can be accessed on our site here or on iTunes here.

Divergence in Sectors Says Be Aware

We’ve seen Dow Industrials heading higher recently, while Transports have been struggling. From Acampora’s Dow Theorist perspective, he sees indications that the move higher may be wearing thin.

“For those who follow the theory, in any kind of rally from current levels, you want both indicators to make new highs,” he said. “If they don’t, then this divergence … suggests that maybe we’re in the latter innings of this move.”

When he looks at current charts, particularly in the tech sector, for example, he’s starting to get a nosebleed, he stated.

“It’s starting to go parabolic,” Ralph said. “I don’t know how greedy one wants to be. If you want to hang in there and try to get every nickel out of the run, God bless you, go ahead. But you better have some stops in there somewhere along the line because you can’t continue at that rate.”

Still a Secular Bull, But Watch out Short-Term

Despite divergences, Acampora is still a secular bull. A secular move can last for a couple of decades, he noted, and with this current move higher beginning from the low of March 2009, he believes we still have room to go. But that doesn’t mean we won’t see problems develop in the short-term.

“We’re 8 years into this, and we haven’t had a significant pullback or correction in quite some time,” he said. “When I look at the current market, I see it as very split. For example, look at today. The Nasdaq is at an all-time new high and the Dow is struggling. That’s classic.”

Various sectors are doing well, such as Technology and Industrials, while others are making new lows, such as energy. The financials are rolling over, he added.

“For the first time in many months, I’m taking my foot off the pedal a little bit,” he said. “I don’t want to sound like a super bear because I’m not … I am a secular bull, and I’m looking at the long-term, and I’m very optimistic. But in the near term — and I define the near term as the next several months — I think you have to be very selective.”

He likes Consumer Discretionary (XLP), Consumer Staples (XLY), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK) and Utilities (XLU), he noted.

What Might Trigger a Move Lower?

The traditional 6-month presidential honeymoon period in markets is almost over, Acampora stated. We also haven’t seen tax cuts or regulatory reform yet, either, and he sees these as increasingly less likely to materialize soon.

“Honeymoons come to an end,” he said. “Even Ronald Regan’s honeymoon only lasted 6 months, and then he had a bear market. That’s not unusual.”

We often see markets stumble starting towards the end of a new administration’s first year and into its second year. However, the second half of the president’s term can still produce moves to the upside, which is what he expects will happen.

We’re also seeing a Federal Reserve that appears likely to raise the key interest rate again in June, which might produce a stumble in the markets, Acampora noted.

Words of Wisdom for Investors

For younger investors, Acampora still advises putting money away on a dollar cost average basis as early as possible. For those closer to retirement, dividend-paying stocks are attractive.

At heart, he’s optimistic about the economy.

“I have a farm in Minnesota, and on the farm, I have a big barn,” Acampora said. “I’ve been in Wall Street for 50 years. This summer, I’m going to hand paint the largest chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in history going back 50 years. I’m going to put a little quote at the end of it: ‘It pays to be an optimist.’”

Listen to our daily interviews with leading guest experts by clicking here.

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Exceptional Education, Meaningful Mission

Posted March 27, 2017 By APTA.org.au
Market Technicians Association - MTA

Have you ever wanted to be a part of an organization with clarity of purpose? With international reach and growing global membership? With integrity and core values you agree with? Do you desire to give back to the industry and take part in a mission driven body of professionals managing market risk?

Through your participation in various events, we know you recognize the educational benefits of membership. As an investment professional, we encourage you to take the next step as an advocate of professional ethics, accountability and competency. The next 45 years of the MTA will depend on even greater engagement from the investment industry and professionals like you.

The Australian Professional Technical Analysts (APTA), in association with the MTA, drives value through three main areas: the CMT curriculum, educational programming, and our growing professional network:

 

APTA and MTA FAQs

Posted March 24, 2017 By APTA.org.au

APTA and MTA FAQs

What is the MTA and what do they have to do with APTA? 
MTA information Click here.
APTA and the MTA have a strategic partnership in Australia, offering honorary membership to MTA members.

How can I learn more about the MTA ?
Watch the following short video

What are the benefits of an APTA or MTA Membership ?
The three main benefits of an APTA or MTA membership are:
1. Qualifications – CMT Examination (MTA) or AMT – An APTA qualification.
2. Education
3. Networking

MTA Benefits Click here

BENEFIT 1: QUALIFICATIONS / CMT EXAMINATION

What qualification does APTA offer?
APTA qualifications

What is the value of the CMT examination ?
Click here

What is the structure of the CMT examination ?
Click here

How can I get detailed information about the CMT examination ?
Click here

BENEFIT 2: EDUCATION

The educational resources of the MTA are available to APTA members by registering at the APTA website.

Click on the 8 sources of education for an APTA or MTA member:

1.  Student Newsletter

2. Knowledge Base

3. Educational Webcasts

4. Podcasts

5. Journal of Technical Analysis

6. CMT Newsletter

7. MTA Library

8. Technically Speaking Newsletter

BENEFIT 3: NETWORKING

Who presents to the APTA Meetings ?
Institutional Traders & Analysts (banks, hedge funds, brokers) and APTA members present their trading and analysis techniques.

APTA Meetings are free for APTA and MTA members to attend.

What are some of the benefits of attending APTA Meetings ?

Educational content (learn new market strategies)
Networking opportunities (meet people in the industry and exchange business details)

By Emily E.A. Meyer

The Puget Sound Chapter of the MTA invites you to our next chapter meeting on Thursday, December 15, 2016. We are pleased to have Jesse Felder as our guest speaker for the August meeting.

Register Here

We encourage you to bring clients or colleagues interested in technical analysis to this presentation.

Complete event details are listed below. We hope to see you there!

Leslie Jouflas, CMT
Brant Greene, CMT
Tom McClellan
Puget Sound Chapter Chairs


Date: Thursday, December 15, 2016

Time: 7:00 PM – 8:30 PM

Topic:
Jesse Felder began his journey on Wall Street in the mid-1990’s as a boring old Ben Graham-style value investor just as the stock …read more

Source:: MTA News

      

By Emily E.A. Meyer

The New York Chapter of the MTA invites you to our next chapter meeting on Monday, December 5, 2016 hosted by Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business. We are pleased to have Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D. and Jack Vogel, Ph.D. as our guest speakers.

Register Here

Registration for this event is free for Members and Non-Members. We encourage you to bring clients or colleagues interested in technical analysis to this presentation.

Complete event details are listed below.

Alan Lax, CMT
Dan Russo, CMT
Mike Sroga, CMT
New York Chapter Co-Chairs


Date: Monday, December 5, 2016

Time: 5:30 PM – 7:30 PM

Topic: Creating a Momentum-Based Stock Selection Strategy

Jack and …read more

Source:: MTA News

      

By Emily E.A. Meyer

The MTA Chapter of Richmond and the CFA Society of Virginia invite you to join us at our next joint meeting on Friday, November 18, 2016. We are pleased to have Meb Faber, CMT as our guest presenter.

We encourage you to bring clients or colleagues interested in technical analysis to this presentation.

Complete event details are listed below.

Sam Turner, CMT
Richmond Chapter Chair


Date: Friday, November 18, 2016

Time: 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM

Topic: The 4 Biggest Investor Mistakes, and How to Fix Them

Presenter: Meb Faber, CMT, CAIA, Co-founder & Chief Investment Officer, Cambria Investment Management

Location:
The Omni Hotel Richmond
100 South 12th Street
Richmond, VA …read more

Source:: MTA News

      

By Emily E.A. Meyer

The Houston Chapter of the MTA invites you to our next chapter meeting on Tuesday, October 25, 2016. Come prepared with at least one stock or market you would like to discuss as this month’s topic is a “Market Discussion”.

Register Here

We encourage you to bring friends/colleagues with an interest in technical analysis to this event. We look forward to seeing you all.

Complete event details are listed below.

Bruce Kish, CMT
Matthew Caire, CFP, CMT, CFA
Adin Gosine, CMT
Houston Chapter Co-Chairs


Date: Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Time: 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM

Topic: Market Discussion

Location:
Travis Auditorium
601 Travis Street
Houston Texas, 77002

Please park on lot at intersection of …read more

Source:: MTA News

      

By Emily E.A. Meyer

Technically Speaking magazine is a monthly periodical distributed to the MTA membership in digital format. Technically Speaking highlights a variety of topics in market analysis, asset management, and trading. The magazine features articles, techniques and research written by members of the MTA and wider financial community, book reviews, and interviews with recognized industry professionals.

View October 2016 Issue

In this issue…

  • William S. Doane, RIP – Page 3
  • Broad Bottom Configurations and Their Application to Investment Strategy by William S. Doane – Page 5
  • BIS: An Early Warning Indicator of Financial Crises – Page 10
  • Educational Foundation Sets High Goals for …read more

    Source:: MTA News

          

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